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How to use EV Sniper

A quick tour of every page, what the numbers mean, and how to find the sharpest plays of the day.

Quick Start

  1. 1. Pick a page

    Board for props, HRs for dingers, Games for sides/totals.

  2. 2. Sort by Edge

    Positive Edge = our model thinks the line is wrong.

  3. 3. Check the Grade

    A = sharp + Statcast lock. Stick to A/B for highest hit rate.

  4. 4. Open Scouting

    Click a row for AI insight, percentiles, and confidence.

Pages Tour

Board — Player Props
Every MLB player prop with our EV projection, edge, and grade.
  • Switch categories using the chips: Hits, TB, HRs, H+R+RBI, RBIs, Runs, Ks, Pitcher Outs, ER, Walks.
  • Filter by Positive Edge, A-Grades, or search a player.
  • Click any row to open the Scouting Card with Statcast data and an AI insight.
HR Board
Flagship page for home run hunters.
  • Top 15 HR Targets — ranked by composite (edge + probability).
  • Vulnerable Pitchers — today's softest arms by HR/9 + barrel% allowed.
  • Parlay Builder — auto-build 2–5 leg HR parlays. Pick 'vs Soft SP' to target the vulnerable arms.
1st Inning (NRFI / YRFI)
First-inning markets only — fast, sharp, easy to track.
  • NRFI = No Run in 1st. YRFI = Yes Run in 1st.
  • Hit % shows the side's win probability after blending sharp lines.
Games
Full game markets: Moneyline, Run Line, Totals, F5.
  • Hit % is the projected chance the side wins/covers.
  • Edge compares our number to the best available US book.
Results
How our Top 10 picks performed each day.
  • Separate win-rate cards for Top 10 HR Targets, Hitters, and Pitchers.
  • Auto-settled vs official MLB stats every morning.
Top
Daily leaderboard hub.
  • Top HR Targets, Top Hitters, Top Pitchers.
  • Ranked by composite score (60% edge + 40% probability).

FAQ

How are projections built?

We start with a sharp no-vig fair line (Pinnacle-anchored when available, de-vigged consensus fallback). Then we blend in Statcast form (xwOBA, xERA), matchup splits, and park factors to land on EV Projection.

What makes a Grade A pick?

A real mathematical edge (positive Edge %) AND Statcast alignment — barrel rate, hard-hit, and matchup factors all pushing the same direction. We won't grade something A on edge alone.

Why is Probability different from the sportsbook number?

The sportsbook number includes their margin (vig). Our Probability strips the vig and adjusts for player form, matchup, and park. The difference is your Edge.

How often does the data update?

Odds sync every 2 hours from 9am–11pm ET. Statcast refreshes daily. Top picks snapshot at 11am ET and auto-settle the next morning.

What does the Scouting Card show?

Click any player row. You'll get an AI-generated insight, color-coded Statcast metrics with percentile rankings, an edge comparison, confidence score, and contextual badges (Hot Barrel, HR-Prone SP, etc).

Is this legal? Responsible play?

EV Sniper is informational only — not betting advice. Must be 21+. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.